Opening Shot

Well, it looks like I wasn’t the only one thinking this way.  And I’m chagrined to see that I may be right, too.

I guarantee you, this is just a ranging shot.

After the convention, they will be firing for effect.

4 Comments

  1. Eric says:

    Yes, never mind that the government has said that if we allowed drilling on the coast today it would be 2030 before enough supply came on line to have any effect on oil or gas prices. Even then, they find it doubtful it would have any really effect on oil prices:

    http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/otheranalysis/ongr.html

    “The projections in the OCS access case indicate that access to the Pacific, Atlantic, and eastern Gulf regions would not have a significant impact on domestic crude oil and natural gas production or prices before 2030. Leasing would begin no sooner than 2012, and production would not be expected to start before 2017. Total domestic production of crude oil from 2012 through 2030 in the OCS access case is projected to be 1.6 percent higher than in the reference case, and 3 percent higher in 2030 alone, at 5.6 million barrels per day. For the lower 48 OCS, annual crude oil production in 2030 is projected to be 7 percent higher—2.4 million barrels per day in the OCS access case compared with 2.2 million barrels per day in the reference case (Figure 20). Because oil prices are determined on the international market, however, any impact on average wellhead prices is expected to be insignificant.”

  2. Phelps says:

    Here’s your choice:

    Oil prices accurately portray supply and demand, and anyone who says anything about speculators is an idiot, or

    Oil prices are determined in a significant way based on the futures market, in which speculators gauge the risk of future oil supply and demand and include that risk in the price.

    Also, the OCS scenario assumes that OPEC will continue with the current manipulations of the foreign oil supply and have absolutely no reaction to increased American production (which would, in and of itself, speak to a desire to continue expanding domestic production if the price remained high.) Don’t assume that OPEC production won’t rise if we start expanding our production. (Of course, don’t assume that they are capable of expanding production, either, because there are signs that they are bluffing about having extra capacity.)

  3. Eric says:

    I’m one of those people that think oil prices accurately reflect supply and demand. Because, you know, that’s what government groups that who actual study the market tell me:

    http://www.cftc.gov/stellent/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/file/itfinterimreportoncrudeoil0708.pdf

    The task force’s research “does not support the hypothesis that the activity of these groups (speculators) is driving prices higher.” There conclusion? The increase is “largely due” to fundamental factors like rapidly rising consumption and sluggish growth in energy supplies worldwide.

    Politicians caulk up the price increase to speculators because they can actually do something about that. No politician wants to stand up and say “there isn’t anything the government can do to affect the price of oil in the short term.” That’s a good way to not get elected.

    But we need to face the facts:

    1) we aren’t going back to cheap oil anytime soon.
    2) Oil is sold on the open market. We are all better for that fact.
    3) The government cannot/does not control the price.

  4. R says:

    “Don’t hope for more oil, vote for it?” What the fuck? As if voting for McCain is going to put more non-renewable energy into the ground?

    Again, the larger issue isn’t about foreign oil, or supply and demand. It is in the short term and it is for the current candidates who want to be president.

    However, drill or no drill, we need alternative energy sources.

    That attack ad is so full of shit. Because Congress is just for show…